Ascoli vs Sampdoria: Prediction & Preview
Ascoli, fourth in Serie B, host 19th-placed Sampdoria in Round 9 on 27 October. Form, head to head, key players and our model's prediction.
Top four against the bottom three
Ascoli host Sampdoria in Round 9 of Serie B on Tuesday, 27 October 2026, with kick-off at 19:00 UTC (15:00 ET) at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. The two sides arrive at opposite ends of the table.
Ascoli sit fourth of 20 on 15 points, having won four, drawn three and lost one of their eight league games, scoring 14 and conceding 6. Sampdoria are 19th with 5 points from eight matches, with one win, two draws and five defeats, and have scored 8 while conceding 16.
Form guide
Ascoli's form reads WDDWL, newest first, and they come into this game off a 6-1 win at Catanzaro on 24 October. Before that they drew 1-1 at home to Empoli and 0-0 away at Südtirol, after a 3-1 home win over Avellino and a 0-1 defeat at Padova. Across all competitions they have won five of 10, with two clean sheets.
Sampdoria's form is DLLWL. Their latest outing was a 1-1 draw at Südtirol on 24 October, which followed a 1-2 home defeat to Arezzo and a 1-4 loss at Avellino. Their only win in the last five was 2-1 at home to Catanzaro, and they have yet to keep a clean sheet in nine matches across all competitions.
Head to head
Recent meetings have favoured Sampdoria rather than Ascoli. Sampdoria won the most recent one 2-1 at home on 11 March 2024, while the two before that were drawn: 1-1 at Ascoli on 7 October 2023 and 2-2 at Sampdoria on 20 October 2022.
That leaves Ascoli without a win in the last three meetings, with Sampdoria taking one and two ending level.
Key numbers and players
Gabriele Gori leads Ascoli's scoring in the league with two goals, while Federico Gattoni and Giovanni Corradini have one each. For Sampdoria, Lorenzo Insigne has three league goals and Tobias Lauritsen has one.
Sampdoria's underlying numbers highlight their struggles in attack. Across the three matches with stats available, they averaged 51% possession but just 6.67 shots, 1.67 on target and an xG of 0.34, against an xG conceded of 1.17. They also averaged 3.67 corners.
Prediction
Hyper2Play's model, which is based on points per game, goal difference, recent form and home advantage, gives Ascoli an 83% chance of winning, with 14% for a draw and 3% for Sampdoria. The pick is Ascoli with high confidence, and the most likely score is 2-0.
The gap in the table, Ascoli's home advantage and Sampdoria's lack of clean sheets and attacking threat all drive that estimate. Sampdoria's recent head-to-head record is a reminder that this is a model estimate, not a guarantee.
Most likely score: 2-0
Our own model, from points per game, goal difference, recent form and home advantage. An estimate, not betting advice.
This article was written with automation from verified sports data and checked against that data before publishing. How we work
