Toronto Maple Leafs vs Colorado Avalanche: Prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs host Colorado Avalanche at Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday, 11 November 2026 in Round 7 of the 2026/2027 NHL season. The two sides arrive in contrasting positions in the standings.

Toronto are 20th of 32 with 18 points from 19 games, having won 8 and lost 9. Their goals column is level at 64 scored and 64 conceded. Colorado sit 10th with 22 points from 18 games, with 10 wins, 6 defeats and a goal record of 72 for and 56 against.

Toronto's form reads LLLWL, and the recent home record is the main concern. They were beaten 0-4 by New Jersey Devils on 9 November, 2-4 by Montreal Canadiens the day before and 2-3 by Utah Mammoth on 4 November. Their only win in the last five came on the road, 4-2 at Vancouver Canucks, either side of a 4-5 loss at Seattle Kraken.

Colorado's last five read WLLWW, with the most recent result a 4-0 home win over Detroit Red Wings on 8 November. That followed a 2-3 home defeat to Nashville Predators and a heavy 2-7 loss at Columbus Blue Jackets. Earlier in the run they beat Chicago Blackhawks 5-2 away and Calgary Flames 5-2 at home.

Toronto have the edge in the last five meetings, with 3 wins to Colorado's 2. The most recent game, on 10 October 2026, finished 3-6 in Colorado's building, a convincing win for the Maple Leafs. Toronto also won 4-3 in Colorado on 13 January 2026 and 2-1 at home on 19 March 2025.

Colorado's two wins in that run were a 1-4 victory in Toronto on 25 January 2026 and a 7-4 home win on 9 March 2025.

Across all competitions, Toronto have played 23 games, winning 10 and losing 13, with 78 goals scored and 75 conceded. They have yet to keep a clean sheet, with 0 so far.

Colorado's all-competitions record stands at 12 wins and 10 defeats from 22 games. They have scored 82 and conceded 64, and have 1 clean sheet to their name.

Hyper2Play's model makes Colorado Avalanche the pick, with a 70% chance of an away win against 30% for Toronto Maple Leafs, and the model rates its confidence as high. The likely score is 3-4, a narrow Colorado win.

The estimate is based on points per game, goal difference, recent form and home advantage. Colorado's stronger standing and goal difference outweigh Toronto's home ice, particularly given the Leafs' three straight home defeats. As with any model output, this is an estimate rather than a guarantee, and Toronto's recent wins in this fixture are a reminder of that.