Toronto Maple Leafs vs Montreal Canadiens: Prediction

Toronto Maple Leafs welcome Montreal Canadiens to Scotiabank Arena on Sunday, 8 November 2026, in Round 6 of the 2026/2027 NHL season.

The two sides come into the game in different parts of the 32-team standings. Toronto Maple Leafs sit 19th with 18 points from 17 games, with 8 wins and 7 defeats, while Montreal Canadiens are 6th with 23 points from 16 games after 10 wins and 3 defeats.

Toronto Maple Leafs have a form line of LWLLW. Their most recent outing was a 2-3 home defeat to Utah Mammoth on 4 November, which followed a 4-2 win away at Vancouver Canucks. Before that they lost 4-5 at Seattle Kraken and 2-5 at Calgary Flames, having opened the run with a 7-2 victory at Edmonton Oilers.

Montreal Canadiens arrive in better shape with a WLWWW sequence. They beat Utah Mammoth 5-4 at home on 6 November, two days after a 4-5 home loss to Winnipeg Jets. Earlier they edged Pittsburgh Penguins 5-4 at home and won on the road at Dallas Stars, 5-2, and St. Louis Blues, 2-0.

In the NHL, Toronto Maple Leafs have scored 62 goals and conceded 56, while Montreal Canadiens have scored 57 and conceded 51. Both teams therefore carry a positive goal difference into the meeting.

Across all competitions, Toronto Maple Leafs have played 21 games with 10 wins and 11 defeats, scoring 76 and conceding 67 without a clean sheet. Montreal Canadiens have also played 21, winning 14 and losing 7, with 75 goals for, 63 against and 2 clean sheets.

Hyper2Play's model, which weighs points per game, goal difference, recent form and home advantage, makes Montreal Canadiens the pick with a 64% win probability against 36% for Toronto Maple Leafs. The model rates its confidence as high and sees 2-3 as the most likely score.

The visitors' higher league position and four wins from their last five games outweigh Toronto Maple Leafs' home advantage in the calculation. This is an estimate from our own model and not a guarantee of the result.