Nottingham Forest vs Manchester City: Prediction & Preview
Nottingham Forest, 19th, host second-placed Manchester City at the City Ground in Premier League Round 10. Form, head to head and our model's prediction.
Bottom three meets title chasers
Nottingham Forest host Manchester City in Round 10 of the 2026/2027 Premier League on Saturday, 7 November 2026, with kick-off at 17:30 UTC (12:30 ET) at the City Ground. The two sides arrive at opposite ends of the table.
Forest sit 19th of 20 with 6 points from 9 matches, having won one, drawn three and lost five, with a goal difference of 6 scored against 12 conceded. Manchester City are second on 21 points, with seven wins and two defeats from their 9 league games, scoring 20 and conceding 10.
Form guide
Forest's recent run reads LDLLL. Their latest outing was a 0-2 defeat at Brentford on 31 October, which followed a 1-1 draw away at Ipswich Town, a 0-1 home loss to Arsenal, a 1-3 defeat at Crystal Palace and a 0-1 home loss to Coventry City.
Manchester City's form is WLLWW, though the losses came in the league. They lost 0-1 at home to Brighton and Hove Albion on 31 October and 1-2 at Aston Villa on 24 October. Either side of that, they beat Ipswich Town 3-2 and AEK Athens 5-1, and most recently won 3-2 away at RB Leipzig in the UEFA Champions League on 4 November.
Head to head
Of the last five meetings, Manchester City have won three, Nottingham Forest one, and one ended level. The most recent, on 4 March 2026 at Manchester City, finished 2-2, while City won 2-1 at Forest on 27 December 2025.
Forest's lone win in that sequence was a 1-0 home victory on 8 March 2025. City won 2-0 at Forest on 27 April 2025 and 3-0 at home on 4 December 2024.
Key numbers and players
Forest average 16.89 shots per game but only 3.44 on target, with 47.44% possession and an xG of 1.59 against 1.05 conceded. They have kept one clean sheet in 9 matches, and Dan Ndoye is their top league scorer with 2 goals.
Manchester City average 63.23% possession, 16.46 shots and 6.23 on target across 13 matches in all competitions, with an xG of 2.22 and 1.07 against. Erling Haaland leads their league scoring with 9 goals, ahead of Rayan Cherki on 4 and Antoine Semenyo on 2.
Prediction
Hyper2Play's own model, which weighs points per game, goal difference, recent form and home advantage, gives Manchester City an 83% chance of winning, with 14% for a draw and 3% for Nottingham Forest. The pick is Manchester City, with high confidence, and the most likely score is 0-1.
The gap in the table and Forest's run of one point from their last five league games drive that estimate, as does City's sharper output in front of goal. It is a model estimate rather than a guarantee, and City's two recent league defeats show results can still go against the numbers.
Most likely score: 0-1
Our own model, from points per game, goal difference, recent form and home advantage. An estimate, not betting advice.
This article was written with automation from verified sports data and checked against that data before publishing. How we work
