Alianza Atlético vs Deportivo Garcilaso: Prediction

Alianza Atlético welcome Deportivo Garcilaso to Estadio Campeones del 36 for Round 14 of the 2026 Liga 1 Perú season. Kick-off is on Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 20:30 UTC (16:30 ET).

The hosts sit 10th of 18 teams with 43 points from 30 games, having won 12, drawn 7 and lost 11. Deportivo Garcilaso are 4th on 51 points from the same number of matches, with 15 wins, 6 draws and 9 defeats.

Alianza Atlético arrive with a form line of LLWWL and on the back of two heavy defeats. They lost 1-4 away to Sport Huancayo on 24 October, after a 1-4 home defeat to Universitario on 18 October. Before that they won 3-1 at Sport Boys and 2-1 at home to Comerciantes Unidos, but lost 1-3 at Atlético Grau on 13 September.

Deportivo Garcilaso's form reads WLLWL, though their most recent outing was a 4-1 home win over Los Chankas on 25 October. That followed a 2-4 defeat at Melgar and a 0-1 home loss to Sport Huancayo. Earlier they beat Universitario 4-0 at home and lost 0-1 away to Sport Boys.

The two sides have scored the same number of league goals, 45 each, but the defensive records differ sharply. Alianza Atlético have conceded 44 in the league, while Deportivo Garcilaso have let in only 30.

Across all competitions, Alianza Atlético have played 37 games, winning 13, drawing 9 and losing 15, with 49 scored, 53 conceded and 8 clean sheets. Deportivo Garcilaso have played 31, with 15 wins, 6 draws and 10 defeats, scoring 45, conceding 32 and keeping 11 clean sheets.

Hyper2Play's model gives Deportivo Garcilaso a 41% chance of winning, with a draw at 27% and a home win at 32%. The pick is Deportivo Garcilaso, with 0-1 as the most likely score.

The estimate draws on points per game, goal difference, recent form and home advantage, and Garcilaso's tighter defence and higher league position tip the balance. Confidence is rated low, as home advantage keeps Alianza Atlético close, and this is a model estimate rather than a guarantee.