Valencia vs Real Madrid: Prediction & Preview
Valencia host Real Madrid at Estadio de Mestalla in La Liga Round 12. Form, head to head, key numbers and our model's prediction.
Bottom three meets the title race
Valencia welcome Real Madrid to Estadio de Mestalla for Round 12 of La Liga's 2026/2027 season on Saturday, 7 November 2026, with kick-off at 20:00 UTC (15:00 ET). The two sides arrive at opposite ends of the table.
Valencia sit 19th of 20 with 9 points from 11 matches, having won two, drawn three and lost six, with 8 goals scored and 17 conceded. Real Madrid are 3rd on 27 points, with nine wins, no draws and two defeats, scoring 28 and conceding 10.
Form guide
Valencia's form reads WLDDL. They head into this game on the back of a 1-0 win away at Elche on 1 November, which followed a 1-2 home defeat to Villarreal, a 0-0 home draw with Athletic Bilbao and a 2-2 draw away at Racing de Santander.
Real Madrid have won their last five, form WWWWW. Most recently they beat AEK Athens 3-2 away in the UEFA Champions League on 4 November, after a 3-0 league win at Racing de Santander and a 2-1 victory away at Barcelona. Across all competitions they have won 13 of 15 matches.
Head to head
Real Madrid have the upper hand in the last five meetings, with three wins to Valencia's one and one draw. The most recent, on 8 February 2026 at Valencia, ended 0-2, and Real Madrid won 4-0 at home on 1 November 2025.
Valencia's lone win in that run came away, 1-2 at Real Madrid on 5 April 2025. The sides drew 2-2 at Valencia on 2 March 2024.
Key numbers and players
Valencia average 43.91% possession, 10.27 shots and 2.82 shots on target per match, with an xG of 1.2 against 1.09 conceded. They have kept 4 clean sheets in 11 games.
Real Madrid average 52.47% possession, 17.27 shots and 7.27 on target, with an xG of 2.59 and 1 against. Kylian Mbappé leads their scoring with 12 league goals, ahead of Jude Bellingham on 4 and Yan Diomande on 3.
Prediction
Hyper2Play's model, which weighs points per game, goal difference, recent form and home advantage, gives Real Madrid an 84% chance of winning, a draw 14% and Valencia 2%. The pick is Real Madrid with high confidence, and the most likely score is 0-1.
The gap in points, goal difference and form explains the lean towards the visitors, while Valencia's 4 clean sheets point to a tight scoreline. This is an estimate from our model, not a guarantee.
Most likely score: 0-1
Our own model, from points per game, goal difference, recent form and home advantage. An estimate, not betting advice.
This article was written with automation from verified sports data and checked against that data before publishing. How we work
