Aberdeen vs Falkirk: Prediction & Preview
Aberdeen host Falkirk at Pittodrie Stadium in Round 11 of the Scottish Premiership. Form, head to head, key numbers and our model's prediction.
Match context
Aberdeen welcome Falkirk to Pittodrie Stadium in Round 11 of the 2026/2027 Scottish Premiership on Wednesday, 28 October 2026. Kick-off is at 19:45 UTC (15:45 ET).
Only one point separates the sides. Aberdeen sit 9th of 12 on 11 points after 10 games, with three wins, two draws and five defeats, while Falkirk are 7th on 12 points from three wins, three draws and four losses. Both have scored 12 league goals, with Aberdeen conceding 13 and Falkirk 12.
Form guide
Aberdeen arrive with a form line of LWLDW and come off a 2-3 defeat away to Dundee United on 24 October. Before that they beat St Mirren 3-1 at home, lost 0-1 to St Johnstone at Pittodrie, drew 1-1 at Hibernian and won 4-0 at Motherwell.
Falkirk are in better shape with WWLDW. They beat Kilmarnock 3-0 at home on 24 October after a 2-1 win at Hibernian, with a 1-2 home loss to Dundee, a 1-1 draw at St Johnstone and a 2-1 home win over Heart of Midlothian before that.
Head to head
Falkirk have had the upper hand in the three most recent meetings, winning two and drawing one. Aberdeen have not beaten them in that run.
The latest game, at Aberdeen on 14 March 2026, finished 1-1. Falkirk won 1-0 at home on 3 January 2026, and also won 0-1 at Aberdeen on 31 August 2025.
Key numbers and players
Across 9 matches with stats, Aberdeen average 49.11% possession, 12.33 shots, 2.89 shots on target and 6.33 corners, with an xG of 1.32 against 1.61 conceded. Falkirk, over 8 matches with stats, average 46.13% possession, 12.13 shots, 4 shots on target and 4.5 corners, with an xG of 1.16 and 1.7 against.
Both sides have kept two clean sheets. Kevin Nisbet leads Aberdeen with 4 league goals, ahead of Connor Ronan and Ayoub Mouloua on 2 each, while Jacob Murrell has 4 for Falkirk, with Ben Krauhaus and Ethan Ross on 1 apiece.
Prediction
Hyper2Play's model, based on points per game, goal difference, recent form and home advantage, gives Aberdeen a 35% chance of winning, a draw 28% and Falkirk 37%. The pick is Falkirk, with 0-1 the most likely score.
Falkirk's two straight wins and their record in recent meetings tip the balance, even with Aberdeen at home. Confidence is low given how close the percentages are, and this is a model estimate rather than a guarantee.
Most likely score: 0-1
Our own model, from points per game, goal difference, recent form and home advantage. An estimate, not betting advice.
This article was written with automation from verified sports data and checked against that data before publishing. How we work
