Dundee vs Kilmarnock: Prediction & Preview
Dundee host Kilmarnock at Dens Park in Round 11 of the Scottish Premiership. Form, key numbers and our model's prediction for Wednesday's game.
Dundee and Kilmarnock meet at Dens Park
Round 11 of the 2026/2027 Scottish Premiership takes Kilmarnock to Dens Park to face Dundee on Wednesday, 28 October 2026. Kick-off is at 19:45 UTC (15:45 ET).
Dundee sit 5th of 12 with 14 points from 10 matches, having won four, drawn two and lost four, with 14 goals scored and 12 conceded. Kilmarnock are 11th on 8 points, with two wins, two draws and six defeats, scoring 10 and conceding 23.
Form guide
Dundee arrive with a form line of LDWWL. Their most recent outing was a 1-2 defeat away to St Mirren on 24 October, which followed a 2-2 home draw with Rangers. Before that they beat Falkirk 2-1 away and Motherwell 2-1 at home, after losing 1-2 at Heart of Midlothian.
Kilmarnock's form reads LWLDW. They were beaten 0-3 at Falkirk last time out on 24 October, a week after a 3-2 home win over Motherwell. A 1-3 loss at Rangers came before that, along with a 1-1 home draw with Heart of Midlothian and a 1-0 win away to Hibernian.
Key numbers and players
Across their last five matches with stats, Dundee have averaged 15.2 shots, 5.4 on target and an xG of 1.3, though with only 39.8% possession and an xG against of 1.76. Bradley Fink is their leading scorer with 4 league goals, with Ashley Hay and Joe Westley on one apiece.
Kilmarnock's figures over the same span show 11.8 shots, 4.2 on target and an xG of 1.26 with 41.8% possession. The worrying number is an xG against of 3.7. Greg Kiltie tops their scoring chart with 2 league goals, while George Stanger and Nicky Cleșcenco have one each. Both sides have kept two clean sheets this season.
Prediction
Hyper2Play's own model, which weighs points per game, goal difference, recent form and home advantage, gives Dundee a 71% chance of winning, with the draw at 19% and a Kilmarnock win at 10%. The pick is Dundee with high confidence, and the most likely score is 2-1.
The estimate reflects Dundee's stronger league position and home advantage against a Kilmarnock side that has conceded 23 goals in 10 games. Dundee's own defensive numbers suggest Kilmarnock may still find the net, hence the 2-1 projection. This is a model estimate, not a guarantee.
Most likely score: 2-1
Our own model, from points per game, goal difference, recent form and home advantage. An estimate, not betting advice.
This article was written with automation from verified sports data and checked against that data before publishing. How we work
